{"id":13885,"date":"2023-08-15T16:49:24","date_gmt":"2023-08-15T14:49:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/captain-trading.com\/actu-crypto\/?p=13885"},"modified":"2023-08-15T16:49:25","modified_gmt":"2023-08-15T14:49:25","slug":"nouveau-cycle-de-marche-crypto-en-cours","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/captain-trading.com\/actu-crypto\/2023\/08\/15\/nouveau-cycle-de-marche-crypto-en-cours\/","title":{"rendered":"Un nouveau cycle de march\u00e9 en cours ?! Ce serait bien le cas selon le co-fondateur de Delphi Digital"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dans l’ actualit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s crypto ce 15\/08, on entend qu’un nouveau cycle de march\u00e9 <\/a>crypto<\/strong> aurait d\u00e9but\u00e9… Selon Kevin Kelly, co-fondateur de Delphi Digital et responsable de la recherche, il existe des preuves croissantes sugg\u00e9rant que le march\u00e9 des cryptos est aux pr\u00e9mices d\u2019un nouveau cycle. Il affirme que les actifs \u00e0 risque, tels que les actions et la crypto<\/strong>, ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 anticip\u00e9 cette tendance tout au long de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et qu\u2019il ne s\u2019agit pas seulement d\u2019un rebond de march\u00e9 baissier.<\/p>\n

Les cycles cryptos et le cycle \u00e9conomique<\/b><\/h2>\n

Kelly souligne que, bien que les march\u00e9s des cryptos<\/strong> puissent sembler chaotiques pour les non-initi\u00e9s, il existe une coh\u00e9rence dans le calendrier des plus hauts et des plus bas, la dur\u00e9e de la reprise jusqu\u2019aux sommets pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents du cycle et le moment des hausses de prix pour atteindre de nouveaux sommets de cycle.<\/p>\n

En utilisant le bitcoin comme \u00e9talon, Kelly explique que lors d\u2019un cycle crypto classique<\/strong><\/a>, le BTC<\/a> atteint un nouveau record historique, suivi d\u2019 une baisse d\u2019environ 80%, pour finalement toucher le creux un an plus tard. Il se redresse ensuite pour atteindre son pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent sommet en environ deux ans, puis conna\u00eet une nouvelle hausse d\u2019un an pour toucher un nouveau sommet historique. Chaque cycle dure environ quatre ans.<\/p>\n

Plut\u00f4t que la longueur et la coh\u00e9rence de ces cycles \u00e9tant al\u00e9atoires, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, Kelly affirme qu\u2019ils correspondent au cycle \u00e9conomique plus large.<\/p>\n

Cycle de march\u00e9 crypto | Le lien entre ISM et bitcoin<\/b><\/h2>\n

Les pics de prix du bitcoin co\u00efncident souvent avec l\u2019indice de l\u2019ISM (Institute for Supply Management) ou l\u2019indice des directeurs d\u2019achat (PMI), montrant des signes de retournement. Des mesures telles que les adresses actives et les volumes de transactions atteignent \u00e9galement leur apog\u00e9e en m\u00eame temps que l\u2019ISM.<\/p>\n

Puis, \u201cquand le cycle \u00e9conomique montre des signes de reprise, les niveaux d\u2019activit\u00e9 du r\u00e9seau augmentent \u00e9galement\u201d,<\/strong> d\u00e9clare Kelly.<\/p>\n

Malgr\u00e9 les craintes li\u00e9es aux taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s, aux pressions inflationnistes et aux inqui\u00e9tudes de r\u00e9cession, Kelly soutient que les march\u00e9s ont une vision \u00e0 long terme et que cela \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 int\u00e9gr\u00e9 dans les pr\u00e9visions pour 2023.<\/p>\n

Une situation similaire \u00e0 2015-2017<\/b><\/h2>\n

Avec l\u2019 ISM<\/strong> qui semble de nouveau atteindre les derni\u00e8res \u00e9tapes d\u2019une tendance baissi\u00e8re, Kelly estime que le march\u00e9 se trouve dans une situation similaire \u00e0 celle de 2015-2017. Il souligne la confluence entre le S&P500<\/a><\/strong>, qui conna\u00eet \u00e9galement une tendance similaire \u00e0 cette p\u00e9riode. Le sentiment du march\u00e9, les donn\u00e9es sur les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et l\u2019action du prix de l\u2019or, influenc\u00e9es par les cycles de liquidit\u00e9 mondiale, sont \u00e9galement comparables.<\/p>\n

Selon la corr\u00e9lation entre les cycles macro et les halvings du bitcoin<\/a>, lorsque la r\u00e9compense par bloc est r\u00e9duite de moiti\u00e9 environ tous les quatre ans, les deux derniers halvings ont eu lieu environ 18 mois apr\u00e8s que le bitcoin a touch\u00e9 le creux et sept mois avant d\u2019atteindre de nouveaux sommets historiques.<\/p>\n

Avec le prochain halving pr\u00e9vu en avril 2024<\/strong> (environ 18 mois apr\u00e8s le creux de novembre 2022), le bitcoin pourrait atteindre un nouveau sommet historique d\u2019ici le quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2024 et un nouveau pic de cycle d\u2019ici le quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2025, s\u2019il suit le m\u00eame sc\u00e9nario en ligne avec une nouvelle tendance \u00e0 la hausse de la liquidit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Cycle de march\u00e9 crypto | Le risque de corrections et la perspective long terme<\/b><\/h2>\n

Malgr\u00e9 sa vision optimiste, Kelly met en garde contre le fait qu\u2019il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que le cycle se d\u00e9roule de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re cette fois-ci, et cela ne signifie pas que le march\u00e9 ne pourra pas conna\u00eetre d\u2019autres corrections.<\/p>\n

\u201cC\u2019est en fait \u00e0 ce moment-l\u00e0 que nous pourrions voir une autre l\u00e9g\u00e8re vente ou une p\u00e9riode de consolidation des prix, surtout apr\u00e8s la forte hausse que nous avons observ\u00e9e au cours des 9 derniers mois (semblable \u00e0 la seconde moiti\u00e9 de 2019)\u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Kelly.<\/p>\n

\u201cUn autre risque notable est si le cycle \u00e9conomique pr\u00e9sente un faux creux (comme nous l\u2019avons vu en mars 2020) ou ne touche pas le creux aussi rapidement que pr\u00e9vu\u201d, ajoute-t-il. \u201cMais si nous regardons au-del\u00e0 du court terme, les perspectives pour les 12 \u00e0 18 prochains mois sont nettement meilleures d\u2019o\u00f9 je suis assis\u201d.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd34 Suivez l\u2019actualit\u00e9 du BTC en live ! \ud83d\udd34<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D’apr\u00e8s Kevin Kelly, co-fondateur de Delphi Digital et responsable de la recherche, de plus en plus de preuves sugg\u00e8rent que le march\u00e9 de la cryptographie est en train d’entrer dans un nouveau cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8996,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[18],"class_list":{"0":"post-13885","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-marche"},"yoast_head":"\nCycle du march\u00e9 crypto : un nouveau cycle serait d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours !<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dans l'actualit\u00e9 crypto de ce 15\/08\/23, on apprend qu'un nouveau cycle de march\u00e9 serait d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours selon une analyse des conditions ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/captain-trading.com\/actu-crypto\/2023\/08\/15\/nouveau-cycle-de-marche-crypto-en-cours\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Un nouveau cycle de march\u00e9 en cours ?! 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