Consumer confidence index (Michigan, Conference Board)

In the United States, the consumer confidence index uses a survey to gauge the mood of households: how they view their finances, the economy, jobs, and the future. The University of Michigan publishes its sentiment index (Consumer Sentiment) in two stages, a preliminary reading and then a final one two weeks later, usually on a Friday at 10:00 a.m. New York time, which is 4:00 p.m. in Paris most of the year; it also reports inflation expectations for the year ahead and over the next 5 to 10 years, which the FOMC watches. The Conference Board usually publishes its Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of the month, at the same time, with two components, the present situation and expectations: in its view, an expectations reading below 80 points to a recession within a year, a call that proved wrong in 2022–2023. The first index reacts more to prices, the second to the labor market. A rise in inflation expectations can stoke fears of rates staying higher for longer. Upcoming releases: the economic calendar.