Retail sales
Retail sales measure the monthly revenue of stores and restaurants in the United States: a first, partial snapshot of household consumption, which accounts for about 68% of US GDP. The Census Bureau publishes an advance estimate around the middle of the following month, at 8:30 a.m. New York time, which is 2:30 p.m. in Paris most of the year, then revises it in subsequent months. The figure is in current dollars, not adjusted for inflation: a surge in gasoline prices inflates sales without any rise in volumes. Hence three readings: the headline figure, the version excluding autos, a very volatile item, and the control group, which also excludes gasoline, building materials, and restaurants; it is the best preview of goods consumption in GDP. A figure well above the consensus signals solid demand, which can keep inflation going and lead markets to anticipate a firmer Fed. Upcoming releases: the economic calendar.
See also
The wealth created by an economy: the benchmark measure of growth.
The index that tracks, month after month, the prices US consumers pay.
The mood of US households, measured by the Michigan and Conference Board surveys.
The median or average forecast of economists polled before a release: the yardstick for surprises.
The schedule of upcoming economic releases, with their time, impact, and consensus.