GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
GDP (gross domestic product) measures the wealth created by an economy over a period; its inflation-adjusted change is the benchmark measure of growth. In the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes it every quarter in three estimates, at 8:30 a.m. New York time, which is 2:30 p.m. in Paris most of the year: the advance estimate, about a month after the quarter, then a second and a third, a month apart. US growth is annualized: the +3.4% for the third quarter of 2026 is equivalent to about +0.8% for the quarter alone. Revisions matter: for the second quarter of 2026, the advance estimate of 1.5% was revised up to 2.2% in the third estimate. For the euro area, Eurostat publishes a flash estimate about thirty days after the quarter, not annualized: +0.4% for the third quarter of 2026. Markets react above all to the gap between the figure and the consensus. Upcoming releases: the economic calendar.
See also
The monthly US purchasing managers’ indexes: above 50, activity is expanding.
The monthly survey of purchasing managers, with a flash version in several countries.
The gap between a country’s exports and imports: surplus or deficit.
The median or average forecast of economists polled before a release: the yardstick for surprises.
The schedule of upcoming economic releases, with their time, impact, and consensus.