Consensus forecast (economists’ consensus)

The consensus forecast, or economists’ consensus, is the expected figure that many economic calendars show in the Forecast column. Before the release, news agencies such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or Dow Jones each poll a panel of economists and take the median of their forecasts, sometimes the average. The surprise is the gap between the published figure and this consensus: it is this gap, more than the level of the figure, that moves prices. Take US employment in January 2026 (NFP): the Dow Jones consensus called for 55,000 new jobs; the first estimate, published on February 11, came in at 130,000. The range of forecasts measures the disagreement among economists: a figure outside that range is a bigger surprise. The “whisper” number, the unofficial expectation circulating among traders, can set the bar elsewhere. Finally, the revision to the previous figure can reinforce or cancel out the month’s surprise. Step-by-step reading: the guide to economic releases; upcoming releases: the economic calendar.