Trade balance

The trade balance is the gap between a country’s exports and imports: in surplus when it sells more than it buys, in deficit when the reverse is true. Strictly speaking, it covers goods only. In the United States, the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis publish the balance of goods and services every month, at 8:30 a.m. New York time, which is 2:30 p.m. in Paris most of the year, about five weeks after the month covered: the September 2026 deficit, $105 billion, came out on November 4. An advance estimate for goods alone comes out about a week earlier. China, Germany, and Japan also publish theirs, which markets watch closely: in 2025, China’s surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time. In principle, a surplus supports the country’s currency, since part of the export revenue is converted into local currency, but capital flows and interest rates often matter more. Upcoming releases: the economic calendar.