Fed dot plot (Summary of Economic Projections)

The Fed’s dot plot is the chart from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that the FOMC publishes 4 times a year (March, June, September, December), together with the statement at 2:00 p.m. Washington time — 8:00 p.m. Paris time most of the year, 7:00 p.m. during the weeks when the US and European clock changes are out of sync. Each dot is the anonymous projection of one participant — up to 19: the 7 governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, whether they vote or not — for the midpoint of the policy rate range at the end of each coming year, then in the longer run. You read the median first, then its shift since the previous dot plot, the dispersion of the dots, and the longer-run dot. It is neither a commitment nor an official average, but a snapshot of individual expectations at a given moment: markets compare it with what they had expected, then with the chair’s remarks at the press conference. Step-by-step reading and Paris times: the complete guide.